China's grand strategy and Australia's future in the new global order

Raby, Geoff2025

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Summary

The US-dominated world order has been replaced by a multipolar order, but its closest allies such as Australia seek to retain American primacy, adding dangerously to heightened geopolitical competition between the dominant and the ascendant power, China. Where the first great power shift of the twenty-first century was across the Pacific from the United States to China, the next great power shift is now underway from Russia to China. Putin's invasion of Ukraine has depleted Russia of its power and influence across Eurasia, while China's continues to grow. As China consolidates its power across Eurasia, it can turn to project power globally, just as the US did at the turn of the last century when it cemented its power over the western hemisphere. Trump 2.0 could up-end Australia's international relations and strategic settings if US foreign policy becomes more transactional. In such a world alliances will matter less. Maintaining influence and security will become much harder for Australia if the guarantor of its security is no longer the sole dominant power, while Chine remains its most important economic partner. Is Australia agile enough to walk the fine line of supporting US primacy in the Asia-Pacific while providing a bulwark against China's ambitions? In this book Raby unpacks the ramifications for Australia.